Comparative scores aren't always comparative

As an observer of high school football from a fan's viewpoint, I always enjoyed speculating the outcome of a particular Friday night game based on the two teams' comparative results against common opponents.

In recent years. I even wondered how the Linton-Stockton Miners might fare against programs from larger schools, based on nothing more than how annual opponents Sullivan and West Vigo fared against such schools on their schedules.

Pure conjecture and nothing more.

From where I now sit, examining the games themselves much more closely, I've concluded that comparing two teams' scores against common opponents is often not a reliable predictive indicator of the outcome on any given Friday night.

Already this season there has been more than one instance where the game didn't turn out quite like one might expect if using nothing more than comparative scores against common opponents as a predictor.

The first one that comes to mind occurred in the Week 3 matchup between Dugger Union and Indiana Deaf. In researching this game, I had noticed that both teams had beaten Traders Point Christian rather handily. The Bulldogs had defeated the Golden Eagles of Traders Point Christian 41-13 while Indiana Deaf had prevailed 16-0.

Indiana Deaf won that Week 3 matchup 49-0.

In Week 5, the Bulldogs were scheduled to face the Crimson Knights of Southside Home School. Again a common opponent was involved and I heard it mentioned that the game might be a competitive one based on the comparative results.

That common opponent again was Traders Point Christian. The Crimson Knights had been 48-0 victors over the Golden Eagles.

To paraphrase Petey Townshend of The Who, my first thought was, "Well, I won't get fooled again."

But this game did in fact unfold as the comparative results might have indicated. Dugger Union was competitive through three quarters - leading 20-8 at one point - before running out of gas in the fourth quarter.

Next up for the Dugger Bulldogs would be the Indiana Tindley Tigers and yes, the two teams shared a common opponent. This time that common opponent was the Noblesville Home School Lions who had won the season opener 55-0 over Dugger and had beaten Tindley 40-0.

It's very difficult to tell just how good a football team really is when they are winning games by large margins. Anyone who has followed Linton Miner football in recent years can surely attest to that.

What the comparative results didn't reveal was that Tindley had some quality athletes on their roster. If Tindley's players were not attending Tindley for academic reasons many of them would be suiting up for larger-school programs within Indianapolis Public Schools.

Speed kills - that phrase was widely used throughout the Sixties and Seventies for reasons unrelated to football.

"Speed kills," Dugger coach Danny Tieken said after the Tindley game. "Big plays also kill."

Speed and big-play capability can make all the difference n a matchup between two otherwise nearly equal teams.

I will admit to falling into the "comparative scores" trap last week in the Battle of the Thunderbirds between Eastern Greene and North Central.

I'd noticed that North Central had fallen to the North Daviess Cougars 47-16.

In Week 3 Eastern Greene had beaten North Daviess 44-16 in perhaps the most complete game they've played all year. And with the arsenal of offensive weaponry the EG Thunderbirds have at their disposal - Briar Martindale, Brent Price, and Jeffrey Graham just to name a few - I envisioned Eastern Greene possibly scoring early and often.

But as ESPN's Chris Berman has said countless times, "That's why they play the games."

Eastern Greene found themselves in a tussle with the other Thunderbirds and essentially willed themselves to win during their game-winning drive.

The remainder of Eastern Greene's schedule is rife with the "comparative scores against common opponents" theme.

This week's opponent North Putnam owns a 14-13 win over North Daviess and next week's opponent West Washington has beaten Mitchell 35-12. Eastern Greene won at Mitchell 32-14 on Sept. 12.

Even more fodder for speculation is present involving the T-Birds final regular-season opponent, the Tecumseh Braves. The two teams will have shared four common opponents.

Tecumseh has played North Daviess (a 14-6 loss), Wood Memorial (47-0 win), Linton-Stockton (28-6 loss), and has beaten West Washington 34-29.

All three remaining games on Eastern Greene's docket appear to be winnable games - at least "on paper."

But any or all of them could result in losses. A recurring theme that T-Birds head coach Joey Paridaen has cited has been self-inflicted correctable mistakes.

I won't even begin to speculate what might happen this Friday when the Linton-Stockton Miners and the North Knox Warriors strap on the pads and go at it as both are 5-1 with their only loss to Sullivan.

Terry Schwinghammer is a sports writer for the Greene County Daily World. He can be reached by telephone at (812) 847-4487, ext. 27. He can also be reached via email at tschwing32@yahoo.com.