A relationship between major hurricanes and major tornadoes was studied. A strong natural short-term cycle was observed overlaying the long-term multi-decadal cycles of hurricane and tornado activity. This research was presented in a paper titled "The Art of Forecasting Extreme Weather Events" at the Second International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratory in July 2006.
From this research, a forecasting tool was developed called the storminess model.
It is time to reflect on the storminess analysis and past forecasts. On 2 January 2012, a forecast was published in Paradigms and Demographics. (http://paradigmsanddemographics.blogspot.com/2012/01/extreme-weather-forecast-for-2012-and.html).
"The year 2012 will not produce an extreme in either the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) or in the number of major U. S. tornadoes (EF4 or EF5). The forecast is that the year 2012 will produce a maximum of 2 major Atlantic hurricanes and a maximum of 10 major U. S. tornadoes."
As predicted the year 2012 was a mild year producing only 1 major Atlantic hurricane and 4 major U. S. tornadoes.
A forecasting tool is only as good as its ability to generate accurate predictions. The best way to test the tool's accuracy is to generate a forecast. To date, the storminess tool was used to make a total of four forecasts and these subsequently were shown to be completely accurate. No other forecasting tool has ever shown this degree of accuracy. Accurate long-range predictions of the intensity of upcoming hurricane and tornado seasons have eluded forecasters for many decades. These types of storms, by their very nature, are raw chaos unfolding.
The forecast of 1/2/12 also contained a second prediction:
"It is very likely (83 percent probability) that the year 2014, will be another extreme weather year. Storminess in 2014 will produce either a minimum of five major Atlantic hurricanes or a minimum of 23 major U. S. tornadoes."
Just as hurricanes exhibit a multi-decadal cycle; so do tornadoes. In 2011, the strong hurricane phase of the multi-decadal cycle, which began in 1995, came to an abrupt end. As a result, we will experience an uptick in major tornado activity for the next decade or two.
Major tornadoes can cause great devastation devouring entire towns. Might it be an appropriate time to construct storm shelters or interior safe rooms and ensure mobile homes are securely anchored to the ground using auger earth anchors?
James A. Marusek
The family of Agnes Flath would like to thank everyone for their prayers, support, flowers, cards and phone calls during our time of loss. Thanks to Brother Buford Smith and the staff at Newkirk's Funeral Home. A special thanks to Rob Turpin and employees for providing our family with the funeral luncheon.
Herman Flath, Linton, IN.
Patricia Burris, Linton, IN.
Terry Smith, Dugger, IN.