Letter to the Editor

Letters to the Editor

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Forecasting tool predicted correctly in 2008

To the Editor:

The hurricane seasons for 2006 and 2007 were fairly quiet. But when it comes to extreme weather, a few quite years can lull individuals into complacency and then the hammer comes down.

In a letter to the editor published in the Jan. 8, 2008 Greene County Daily World, I forecasted "It is very likely (80% probability) that 2008 will be an extreme weather year producing a minimum of five major Atlantic hurricanes." This year produced five major Atlantic hurricanes. This hurricane season was relentless and long. This was the first time that five major hurricanes (Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Omar and Paloma) formed in consecutive months (July - November). Six consecutive storms (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) struck the U.S. mainland. Tropical storm Fay was the first storm in recorded history to make landfall in Florida four times, producing significant flooding event across the state.

In 2006, a relationship between major Atlantic hurricanes and major U.S. tornados was studied. A strong natural short-term cycle was observed overlaying the long-term multi-decadal cycle of hurricane activity. This research was presented in a paper titled "The Art of Forecasting Extreme Weather Events" at the Second International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratory in July 2006. From this research, a forecasting tool was developed called the storminess model.

A forecasting tool is only as good as its ability to generate accurate predictions. The best way to test the tool's accuracy is to generate a forecast. The storminess model was tested twice thus far by generating predictions for the 2006 and 2008 hurricane seasons. Both forecast were accurate. The tool is now two for two.

Prior to sending in the letter to The Daily World, I tried to warn the coastal areas of the U.S. of the upcoming threat. I sent letters to several newspapers on Dec. 26, 2007 warning of the intensity of the upcoming 2008 hurricane season. These newspapers included: the Houston Chronicle in Houston, Texas; St. Petersburg Times in St. Petersburg, Florida; Savannah Morning News in Savannah, Georgia; Tallahassee Democrat in Tallahassee, Florida; Mobile Press-Register in Mobile, Alabama; The Times-Picayune in New Orleans, Louisiana; and the Miami Herald in Miami, Florida.

Unfortunately none of these newspapers felt it was worth giving a heads-up to their subscribers. But the Greene County Daily World did.

James A. Marusek


Please bring Christmas decorations back

To the Editor:

This notice is for the person(s) who took two Christmas decorations (blow-ups) from my yard. The sheriff's office has been notified and came to my home on Thanksgiving evening to investigate this theft.

You're not only a thief but you were trespassing on private property. The sheriff's department has pictures of the two decorations that were taken. I'm sure you won't want to return the items. I'm asking for restitution to be made for the cost ($200) of the two items.

Info has been made as to who/where these items may be so save yourself from being prosecuted and think about it.

I have decorated for years for not only my grandchildren to enjoy but for all who pass my house. Comments have been made about the enjoyment of the decorations. Now we don't have it all. Why did you want to do this?

Joetta Axe