Letters to the Editor
Thanks for supporting motocross event
To the Editor:
I would like to sincerely thank all the people who came out for Sunday's (April 11) Motocross race. You were the key in making it a great success. The weather was beautiful and the rider turnout was excellent. But it was the large number of spectators that made the event even better.
We had 34 riders ranging in ages 5 to 58, from the Greene/Sullivan county area. We also had riders from Kentucky, Illinois and all over Indiana. One-hundred and two (102) riders showed up Saturday just for practice.
This event wouldn't have been possible without the hard work of Paul and Chris Gibson, as well as Dane Eichhorst, Josh Gwaltney, Jeff Swaby, Dave Russell and Steve Mowery. These guys put in countless hours working on the track.
Dane and I also had numerous friends and family who unselfishly gave up their Sunday to help put on this event, with sole intent of making it successful. There's no way we could have done it without them. Thanks to you all, you know who you are!
We also want to thank Rob Kendall for his hard work and the Freedom Festival board for its help as well. We raised a good amount of money for the Freedom Festival, and the event exceeded all expectations. Plus, we provided fun and entertainment for the local fans and riders. It also brought a ton of people to town, which is always a good thing.
Lastly, I want to give big props to the Linton Fire Department for helping with the ambulance and track watering. You guys are awesome.
Thanks again to all involved!
Accurate weather predictions not easy
To the Editor:
Accurate long-range predictions of the intensity of upcoming hurricane and tornado seasons has eluded forecasters for many decades. These types of storms, by their very nature, are raw chaos unfolding.
In 2006, a relationship between major (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) Atlantic hurricanes and major (Fujita scale F4-F5) U.S. tornados was studied. A strong natural short-term cycle was observed overlaying the long-term multi-decadal cycle of hurricane activity. This research was presented in a paper titled "The Art of Forecasting Extreme Weather Events" at the Second International Conference on Global Warming and the Next Ice Age sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratory in July 2006.
From this research, a forecasting tool was developed called the storminess model.
A forecasting tool is only as good as its ability to generate accurate predictions. The best way to test the tool's accuracy is to generate a forecast. The storminess forecasting tool has been tested twice with perfect results. In 2006, it was used to sound an all-clear signal after the last peak was over. This was done in a background of hysteria following the intense 2004/2005 hurricane seasons. In 2008, the tool was used to accurately predict the onset of the next peak. This was done 1 1/2 years in advance of the start of the 2008 hurricane season. These tests demonstrated the power of the storminess analysis.
The year 2009 produced a very mild year with only two major Atlantic hurricanes and two major U.S. tornados. The storminess index dropped below the lower threshold, which sets the stage for another extreme year in the near future. It is very likely (82 percent probability) that next year, the year 2011, will be another extreme weather year. If the multi-decadal cycle remains in the strong hurricane phase, the year will likely produce a minimum of five major Atlantic hurricanes. But this strong hurricane phase began in 1995 and this cycle will be coming to an end soon. If this occurs in 2011, storminess rather than producing an extreme hurricane season; might materialize as a strong tornado season likely producing a minimum of 23 major U.S. tornados (Enhanced Fujita scale EF4-EF5). It may be the very nature of this short-term cycle that catches individuals and communities off guard. A few quite years can lull individuals into complacency and then the hammer comes down.
James A. Marusek